As we discussed earlier, the statistics are one of the most interesting and manipulative tools which could be used for persuasion and hiding the reality by various methods that could be made for statistical reports. This time, I would like to discuss the ways of how the government can manipulate statistics by approaching different methodologies for data analysis.
The statistics could be influence by the some of the governmental organisations. If we assume that all of the bureau of statistics receive the accurate data and made minor changes in data records to adjust them for further analysis, then the main way to have the opportunity for statistics misleading is in the methodology. Methodology plays a crucial role in data analysis, as some of the minor changes could influence the conclusions and overview on the outlook for current situation, for which the analysis were made. And that is the one of the ways to manipulate people with data, which mostly used by politicians and organisations for different political, economical, reputation, and other reasons. Many of these events occur around the world and used by many of the governments, but I would like to discuss the most recent and interesting example.
The recent example of that misleading statistics occurred in Russia, where the Rosstat (Russian bureau of Statistics) have published their new recalculation of the number of Russians living below the poverty line. Unfortunately, I did not found the source in English, but in the link you would able to find the article and translate by your own using different tools. The new report indicated that the number of Russian living below the poverty line is equal to 16 million people, which is less compared with the II quarter (18.2 million) by 2.8 million people (Vedomosti, 2021). I think you wonder now how is that possible, but the key for that is in the new method of calculating the number, i.e., methodology. Until November 2021, an indicator of the subsistence minimum value based on the value of the consumer basket at the relevant time, as well as mandatory payments and fees, was used as a criterion of the poverty line.
However, on November 2021, the government passed the legislative that changed this calculation where the subsistence minimum has been calculated as 44.2% of median income for the corresponding period of time and used to assign social benefits and other support measures. Based on that, the Rosstat reported the decline since the beginning of a year based on new assessed methodology. It seems that there are no problems with that, however, it is considered as a way to hidden the excessed number of people behind the poverty line.
Although in most of the countries that way to calculate the poverty line is used and it works, however, Russia may be the wrong case to use it there. The Russian economist Oksana Dmitrieva indicates a lot of problems regarding the new calculation on the article by Tatiana Volskaya on the Radio Svoboda media with the name of article "The Poverty Line". Dmitrieva states that, usually, from the mathematical perspective, the median (a middle value in the data) will be coincides with the arithmetic mean, and this point of mean income will represent people as below and above the average. However, the Russia has the huge income inequality, and the median income is equal to 62 percent of average income. The greater the social inequality, the more income concentrated at the wealth pole, the more median income differs from the average. And by calculation of subsistence minimum from the average income, it will already turn out somewhere around 25% (Voltstaya, 2021). That is differs significantly from how the living wage is approved in other countries.
All of that will lead to underestimation of the of the subsistence minimum precisely due to inequality. That is why this statistic is misleading from the actual representation (Voltskaya, 2021). The motives are obvious: The Russian president have set a goal for the government, and that is to decrease by twice the people below the poverty line to 2030 compared with 2017, where it was 18.9 million people, or 12.9 percent of population. Therefore, by 2030 the number of people should be decreased to 9.5 million, or 6.5 percent (Vedomosti, 2021).
This is one of the examples of misleading statistics, and sometimes it is hard to identify without the context and other numbers. The politicians could use that statistical evidence to prove their claims and increase their reputation across the people, however, it would not show the reality under this numbers. Therefore, be aware that sometimes the change of methodology could be used in misleading statistics.
https://www.severreal.org/a/31589356.html
References.
Вольтская, Т. [Voltskaya, T.] (2021). "Черта Нищеты". Оксана Дмитриева о новом прожиточном минимуме ["The Poverty Line". Oksana Dmitrieva on the new living wage"]. Radio Svoboda. www.severreal.org.
Ведомости. [Vedomosti.] (2021). Росстат пересчитал число живущих за чертой бедности россиян. [Rosstat recalculated the number of Russians living below the Poverty line]. Vedomosti. https://www.vedomosti.ru
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